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GhostOnTheHalfShell's avatar

You’re forgetting the creation of money through commercial banking.

The principle of outstanding loans represents another form of money in the economy. The balance of outstanding loans versus the rate of the principal being diminished is another box.

And what’s missing even in that is that the interest charge is a demand for a concentration of money that stands outside the zero some of the principal extended, and then eventually extinguished through loan payments.

Overall, there’s much to obsession about boxes at this level rather than where money flows. My main objection to most macro economics as they treat money as a perfect gas instantly filling the box called the economy rather than it being a fluid that flows down basins of financial wealth concentration. These flows have everything to do with the actual circumstance of the economy in the same way that the distribution of water vapor over the planet earth has a great deal to do with the disposition of the people living on this planet

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Jon Underwood's avatar

Jim, nice post!, but tooooo loooong my friend!

I really want to discuss Godley Tables, but like many of the topics you introduced, they deserve their own article. Maybe you can do breakouts next.

As you have pointed out, Gov Deficit Spending (Negative Gov Equity or Gov red ink) leads to private sector black ink. Setting aside the trade deficit for the moment, there is more important minutiae to understand in this, because regardless of whether the Gov sells the bonds prior (my view) or after (your view) the source of funds for the Gov bond sales is a critical element!

If we track the money supply prior to the bond being sold to after, there are some amazing insights, and I’ll even use consolidated Balance Sheet like MMT uses.

1. If the CB buys those bonds, they issue new reserves to buy them, expanding the supply of reserves. And at this point, there is no effect on deposits, however, as soon as the government spends those reserves the receiving bank credits the Government payees deposit account, creating new deposits and expanding the money supply. AND, as long as the CB Holds those bonds To Maturity HTM, the CB will return profits to the Gov, so no negative equity fir the Gov, BUT, there is an increase in private wealth after the Gov spends those reserves. It looks like the Gov/Cb worked together to print free money, although over time they do take it out of circulation by repayment. But, deficits financed like this result in no negative Gov equity, but an increase in Public equity and public wealth from the new Gov spending and new Deposits the public receives.

MMT = +Reserves (Gov payees bank) + deposits (Gov payee) and no publicly owned bond do no negative equity

= +Bond + R +D

2. Banks buy those bonds and the Gov spends, this results in the bank debiting their reserve account, and when the Gov spends these reserves are returned to the banking sector, but they also credit the Gov payee deposit account, expanding the money supply. Banks do an asset swap so no new equity in the banking sector from buying bonds, BUT, then the Gov spends those reserves. It looks like the bond is the new equity, but it’s really the new reserves, and they create the new deposits, so Gov spending is the source of the new equity, not the bond.

MMT = -R bond sale (swap bond for reserves) + R Gov spending, +D banks credit payee deposit accounts.

= +Bond +D

3. Public buys the bond, -deposits - reserves, +bond, then the gov spends, +Reserves + deposits,

MMT -D -R +Bond +R +D = +Bond.

In cases 2 &3, the Gov red ink results in the public’s black ink, BUT, it’s not the bond that creates new equity, the buyer swapped assets to receive it, so -D + bond public or -R +Bond bank.

The ONLY reason there is an increase in public equity is because the Gov decided to deficit spend, and the public payees receives those new deposits.

If we add in the Trade deficit, the beneficiary of deficit spending can also be foreign countries, as a deficit means we import goods and services and export capital.

In 2024, the U.S. had roughly a $1T trade deficit, so exported $T of capital and equity to other countries. Our economy grew by about the same amount, so the U.S. exported the equivalent of 100% of new economic growth. Staying away from the politics and just looking at the Economics, that’s why the U.S. Treasury Secretarry and the President want to adjust the trade deficits through restructuring tariffs. I am not saying they did it the best way possible, just highlighting there is actually economics behind what they are doing…

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